Friday, September 28, 2012

Previewing this weekend's NL Wild Card Race


(Marc Serota/Getty Images)
 
By Stevo-sama | @yoshiki89

-- standings as of end of play 9/27/12 --

Atlanta Braves (Clinched Wild Card Spot, currently Wild Card 1)
With an exhilarating five-game winning streak behind them (having swept the hapless Miami Marlins), the Braves charge on to meet the visiting New York Mets in their final homestand of the season. Not only are they continuing to add a sincere exclamation point to their race for the Wild Card, they are making it rather difficult for the NL East leading Washington Nationals to clinch the division title. The Mets are mildly enjoying a two-game winning streak, also underlined by R.A. Dickey’s stellar performance yesterday. The Mets are 10-14 in September and are 36-39 on the road this season…yet they are 7-5 in their last four road series. The Braves are 10-3 in their last four home series, which isn’t saying much…they are nearly as good on the road as they are at home. A closer look at the pitching matchups reveals that the Mets are 5-6 in September with the scheduled starters on the mound, their lines are 4-3 with 19 ER and a combined 3.51 ERA. By comparison, the Braves’ starters have allowed more ER (22) but the team is 11-3 when these three guys start in September (they are 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA in those starts).

Matchups:
9/28 Niese (12-9) v Hudson (16-6)

9/29 Young (4-8) v Minor (10-10)
9/30 Mejia (1-1) v Medlen (9-1)

 
St. Louis Cardinals (Wild Card 2, currently 7 GB the Braves)
As if it couldn’t be expected, this year’s Cardinals bear some resemblance to last year’s Cardinals in their unyielding push for the playoffs. Heading into the weekend they are tentatively locked into one of the Wild Card spots opposite the Braves, which of course will result in a one-game playoff should either team stay within reach of the standings they currently possess over their next six-games. Where the Braves are providing a challenge for the Nationals’ division clinch, the Cardinals (returning to Busch after a successful 4-2 road trip) are sure to provide even more as Washington comes roaring into town on their second consecutive, and so far winning, road series. The highlight of this upcoming series is sure to be the face-off between the rebounding Jordan Zimmermann and the equally formidable Lance Lynn in game three. Zimmermann is 3-0 with a 4.45 ERA in five September starts, Lynn is 4-2 in three starts with a seismic 0.93 ERA in September (he pitched 4.2 innings out of the bullpen during four consecutive games to start the month, with a 5.79 ERA during those outings alone).

Matchups:

9/28 Jackson (9-10) v Wainwright (13-13)

9/29 Wang (2-3) v Lohse (16-3)
9/30 Zimmermann (12-8) v Lynn (17-7)

 
Los Angeles Dodgers (3 GB the Cardinals)
The Dodgers managed to hold their ground (and their standing in the Wild Card) as they took two of three against the rioting San Diego Padres. The visiting Colorado Rockies are on what could be an ill-fated buzz after winning four consecutive games out of their last six (including a sweep of the ever-trolling Chicago Cubs), but this team is 27-48 on the road and has the inimitable pleasure of facing Clayton Kershaw for the first game in the series. Kershaw’s only start against the Rockies this season was at Denver in May, resulting in a 5-8 Dodgers loss (and a no-decision for Kershaw). Incidentally, May was not Kershaw’s best month in 2012 (2-3 with a 2.86 ERA in six starts), despite the fact that he pitched the first of his two complete game shut-outs on May 19th. Kershaw may be 0-1 in three starts so far this month, but he’s working an 0.95 ERA with 19 strikeouts in those starts. In order to keep their pace, the Dodgers have got to expect that Joe Blanton and Josh Beckett need to figure something out, and fast, at the end of the line. Both starters are winless in their last four starts, but can boast of a modest combined ERA of 3.76. The Rockies are batting .267/.318/.391 in their last 10 road games, the Dodgers are .218/.283/.331 in their last 10 home games. The Dodgers’ WC elimination number is four.

Matchups:
9/28 Francis (5-6) v Kershaw (12-9)

9/29 Chatwood (5-5) v Blanton (9-13)
9/30 De La Rosa (0-1) v Beckett (6-14)

 
Milwaukee Brewers (4 GB the Cardinals)

The Brewers return home after dropping two of three to the Cincinnati Reds, thus losing their foothold in the NL Wild Card race. Even after a moderately impressive 6-4 road trip, there should be a measure of caution in facing the humble Houston Astros, who just finished their final homestand in the National League with a split 3-3 record yet are 11-13 in the month of September. The last time anyone was heard considering a winning series against the Astros a sure thing, they managed to best the visiting Philadelphia Phillies in a four-game series. With only six games left to play (their final series is against the visiting and still quite possibly rioting San Diego Padres) the Brewers need to pretty much blow their competition away in order to stay alive; with a Wild Card elimination number of three, the pressure is on right now. They stood as strong as six games over .500 prior to their series loss against the Reds, but following their antediluvian 12 games under .500 mark on 8/19, they are 26-10 and have refused to look back.

Matchups:
9/28 Gonzalez (2-1) v Gallardo (16-8)

9/29 Keuchel (3-7) v Estrada (4-7)
9/30 Lyles (4-12) v Fiers (9-9)

 
Otherwise known as "The Baseball Enthusiast," Stevo-sama is a scorekeeping addict who scores every game he watches and/or attends, and typically posts these scoresheets on his blog with a game story of one sort or another. Stevo is a self-proclaimed proponent of the Scorekeeping Revolution, community member of the Eephus League, and proud member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

No comments:

Post a Comment