Analyzing the AL Wild Card Race

(Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

By Devin Pangaro | @devinpangaro

The race for the American League Wild Card positions is not for the faint of heart. With four teams in the mix for two spots, the seasons waning days are set for excitement and heartbreak. One can't help but imagine Commissioner Selig holed up in an office, with an Emperor Palpatine like smile across his face as he watches this weekend’s games unfold. While the drama may never compare to the final day last season, be assured that the intensity and magnitude of what does remain should more than suffice. Four teams. Two positions. Everything is on the line. Let's take a look at the contenders.

Baltimore Orioles (89-67, +1 up on Wild Card 1)

Despite an underwhelming run differential for most of the season, Buck's bunch has defied expectations and stayed in the mix all season long, thanks to excellent starting pitching and clutch hitting. Failing to fall in September, Baltimore has held strong with a 16-9 record including four extra-inning wins that have added on to their record of 16 straight over the course of 2012. In fact, much of their success is derivative of their ability to win close games. They are currently a lead leading 27-9 in one run games thanks largely in part to an underrated bullpen led by AL saves leader Jim Johnson, and setup men Pedro Strop and Troy Patton. One thing to keep in mind is that this Baltimore team is very much fighting a war on two fronts. With the Yankees holding a precarious one game lead in the division, Baltimore must continue to click on all cylinders.

A cause of concern may be first year starter Wei-Yin Chen who has led the Orioles staff in a myriad of pitching categories in a very solid season. September however has not been kind to Taiwanese lefty. Whether it be exhaustion, or simply the league catching up to him Chen has struggled during the season’s final month. In five starts, Chen is 0-3 with a 5.90 ERA. Furthermore, he has allowed se
ven home runs in 29 innings making that his highest monthly total all season long.
Weekend Series vs. Tampa Bay

9/28 Tillman (Bal) vs Cook (Bos)

9/29 Johnson (Bal) vs Doubront (Bos)

9/30 Saunders (Bal) vs Stewart (Bos)

 
Oakland Athletics (88-68, -1 behind Wild Card 1, +2 up on Wild Card 2)

There, and back again. The story of the 2012 Oakland Athletics is a miraculous one. Most experts had that pegged for a last place season; many would have deemed them fortunate to avoid 100 losses. In a season, that nobody thought was possible the A's have survived every obstacle from losing 3/5 of their rotation including two in September to enduring the road trip from hell (Detroit, New York, Texas) and losing several heartbreaking games during that period. Still they endure. Every time they suffer a setback, they rise to the occasion and win the next game. For a team, devoid of a superstar and now faced with the unenviable situation of having a pitching entirely composed of rookie starters, the next few games will be key in determining if this team can survive. So far in September, against strong competition they've managed a respectable record of 14-11. To hold on to their playoff spot, they're going to have to keep the pace.

A cause of concern besides the aforementioned rookie rotation burning out, include the offenses massive propensity to strikeout. Striking out an American League record 1,340 times and counting, the A's are proven that their new found power stroke has come at a great cause.

Weekend Series vs. Seattle

9/28 Griffin (Oak) vs Beaven (Sea)

9/29 Straily (Oak) vs Vargas (Sea)

9/30 Milone (Oak) vs Ramirez (Sea)

Tampa Bay Rays (86-70, -3 back from Wild Card 1, -2 back from Wild Card 2)

Here they come again. The never say die Tampa Bay Rays have now racked off eight wins in a row to propel themselves back into the Wild Card hunt, with six games remaining. With Joe Maddon at the helm, the sleeping giants of the east can never be counted out as any Boston fan can attest to. Led by a finally healthy Evan Longoria, and Cy Young contenders David Price and Fernando Rodney, the Rays are full speed ahead in an attempt to squeak into the playoffs like they did last season. Before their recent surge, the Rays has suffered through a pair of losing streaks in the middle of the month that had many ready to stick a fork in them. Instead, they have rallied and stand at an impressive 15-9 in September.

Looking for a cause of concern? Well it's not easy, but one may see the recent struggles of Matt Moore as an obvious red flag. September has not been kind to the youngster... in addition to failing to get through the third inning of his last start, Moore has endured his worst month going 0-3 with a 7.31 ERA and opponents have hit .290 off of him.

Weekend Series at Chicago

9/28 Floyd (Chi) vs Hellickson (TB)

9/29 Sale (Chi) vs Moore (TB)

9/30 Liriano (Chi) vs Price (TB)

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (86-70, -3 back from Wild Card 1, -2 back from Wild Card 2)

Without a doubt, the Angels are the most disappointing of all the Wild Card contenders. Albert Pujols and company were supposed to spend September competing with Texas for the division crown. Like so many expectations that fail to come through, the Angels are in danger of missing out on the playoffs despite an exorbitant payroll. A late season charge led by Tori Hunter still has the Angels clinging for hope as the games dwindle. A chance to move within one game of Oakland on Thursday was squandered like so many games before by an inadequate relief core. A strong 16-8 September, has kept Mike Scioscia's Halos alive and they will need one last hot streak to leapfrog into a spot. With Texas next on the schedule it's not going to be easy.

A cause of concern is the bomb squad that handles middle relief. When a starter can't go long, the Angels must rely on the likes of a past-their-prime LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen to hold opposing offenses at bay and unproven relievers such as Garret Richards and David Carpenter. So far, it really hasn't worked too well.

Weekend Series at Texas

9/28 Dempster (Tex) vs Weaver (LAA)

9/29 Holland (Tex) vs Santana (LAA)

9/30 Darvish (Tex) vs Greinke (LAA)

 

Devin Pangaro is a Staff Writer for FanSided.com's Swingin' A's Blog and Columnist at Big Leagues Monthly | Magazine.