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By
Stevo-sama | @yoshiki89
There can be no question about the continued success of the
Washington Nationals in the NL East this season and the alarming reality that
after years of mediocrity, they are something more than a valid playoff
contender. The franchise’s last winning season was their inaugural season as
the Nationals in 2005, as a .500 team that still floundered in the basement of
the division. Prior to that, only the 2002 Montreal Expos could boast a winning
season and a division title berth, finishing 2nd at 83-79.
There should be dancing in the streets as September arrives.
The taste of playoff baseball is in the air, and the team leads the NL East
over the Atlanta Braves by 6.5 games. However, the cause for pre-emptive
celebration in DC has been dampened somewhat not only by the inevitable exeunt
of phenom Stephen Strasburg as a playoff pitcher but also by the recent
struggles of Jordan Zimmermann.
Strasburg’s highly-publicized innings limit this season has
been a highly debated and thoroughly analyzed question mark in the Nationals’
potential post-season strategy for the past few weeks. Some of the alarm in
this plan has been magnified by Zimmermann’s performance in August.
Zimmermann was named NL pitcher of the Month for July after
posting a 5-1 record in six starts, striking out 31 with an ERA of 0.97 during
that month. This honor took on a dubious nature when in mid-August, his
previously dialed-in work took a different turn, finishing the month with a 3-2
record, posting a season-worst 4.39 ERA and .354 BABIP in five starts.
Following his final August start (on 8/26/12 in a loss
against the Phillies), Zimmermann asserted that nothing had changed and that he was feeling strong, but there was definitely something more to this outing…and
August in general…than meets the eye.
Zimmermann hasn’t pitched in September since 2010, when he
only pitched a total of 31 innings for the Nationals from 8/26 through 10/1,
immediately following his recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2009. The
Nationals mandated a 160-inning limit in 2011, which saw him cut from activity
just as August of that season was ending. Less than ironically, Zimmermann’s
innings limit was not the news in 2011 that Strasburg’s was this season. As it
stands today, Zimmermann’s current workload is already a career high for him.
The question remains: with Strasburg definitively out and
Zimmermann sliding away from the base of the Nationals’ playoff hopes, is there
a valid concern for competitive power at this time, when the Nationals are
certain to be in the September race? There seems to be, from the nature of two
recent additions to the roster.
On September the 1st, the day expanded rosters take effect,
the Nationals called up former rotation mainstay John Lannan.
Lannan was less than formidable during his last full season
with the Nationals in 2011 and hasn’t been much better with the Triple-A club
in 2012 (9-11 with 4.30 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in 24 starts with Syracuse). Lannan
was at the forefront of controversy in April of 2012 when he infamously asked for a trade following his demotion to Triple-A in favor of Ross Detwiler.
It’s apparent now that choosing Detwiler over Lannan was the
best move for the Nationals; Detwiler’s record proves it (9-6 with a 3.15 ERA and
1.157 WHIP in 22 starts). If Lannan is needed for a spot start, he’d be
available and would hopefully be ready to prove what he asserted back in
April, that he belongs in the Nationals rotation. If he can back his words up
with a handful of key performances in September, he’ll get the best chance of
his career to help ring up what will be key victories for the Nationals moving
into post-season play.
If there are doubts that Lannan can help, perhaps those
doubts can be erased by the September 3rd call-up of Zach Duke.
Duke has a career 4.56 ERA and 1.565 WHIP with Pittsburgh
and Arizona from 2005-2011, but with Triple-A Syracuse this year, he has been
absolutely glorious, returning to his pre-2005 minors form with a 15-5 record,
3.51 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in 26 starts for the Chiefs. Think what you want about
the risk, but his work in Syracuse this year may serve as a better risk option
for the Nationals than Lannan…and perhaps even more than Zimmermann at this
point.
The Nationals saw something in Duke when they signed him in
March of 2012. With their playoff hopes real and the potential issues they face
with their rotation also real, Duke has a shot to relieve the pressure from
Zimmermann in a spot start or two in September. It’s looking more and more as
if Zimmermann needs a break, and it looks like the Nationals are making moves
now that will allow this to happen without the risk of jeopardizing the rest of
their season.
Otherwise known as "The Baseball Enthusiast,"
Stevo-sama is a scorekeeping addict who scores every game he watches and/or
attends, and typically posts these scoresheets on his blog with a game story of
one sort or another. Stevo is a self-proclaimed proponent of the Scorekeeping
Revolution, community member of the Eephus League, and proud member of the
Baseball Bloggers Alliance.
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