Previewing the NL Wild Card Race

(Rob Carr/Getty Images)     

By Stevo-sama | @yoshiki89

-- standings as of end of play 9/23/12 --
 

Atlanta Braves (1st Wild Card)

The fighting Braves welcome the visiting Miami Marlins for a three-game series starting in Atlanta on Tuesday, 9/25. The Braves are 14-7 in September, their current mark of 23 games over .500 equals their greatest margin of victory so far this season. With Kris Medlen opening the series against hard-throwing Nathan Eovaldi, Medlen (the Cy Young candidate we should be talking more about) and the Braves have a clear advantage right out of the gate. Paul Maholm’s rough outings seem to be alternating through his last 10 starts, so he’s due for another strike against his sub-4.0 ERA; however, he handled the Marlins well (in Miami) in his last start on 9/18, despite that outing being a no decision with a Braves loss, so there’s at least hope that he can keep the wins moving along for Atlanta. Tommy Hanson is 2-0 against the Marlins this season, but is 0-2 in four September starts, giving up 11 ER in 21.2 IP. On the flip side, he has 25 strikeouts and an opponent BABIP of .245 during those outings.

Matchups:

9/25 Eovaldi (4-12) v Medlen (9-1)

9/26 Johnson (8-13) v Maholm (12-10)

9/27 Turner (2-4) v Hanson (12-9)


St Louis Cardinals (2nd Wild Card)

The Cardinals trotted out strong starter outings during their 3-game series win against the Cubs at Wrigley Field over the weekend, holding a team ERA of 3.80 while their starters allowed only nine earned runs and 12 strikeouts in a combined 18 innings pitched, and look to keep the momentum going against the floundering Astros. Lance Lynn has done well in September (3-2, 2.12 ERA in 6 games, 2 of them starts), but game two starter Jaime Garcia is absolutely baffling right now; he’s performing better in September so far (2-1 in four starts, with a 3.22 ERA), but is 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA since returning from the DL in mid-August. The Garcia that cruised through 7.1 IP against the Mets on 9/4 (five strikeouts, only one run, unearned) is going to have to show up against Lucas Harrell (winless in his last six starts, and helped the Cardinals out on 9/19 allowing three ER on five hits, including two HR) in order to make this series count. Chris Carpenter rounds out the series, he looked great in his first start of the season against the Cubs on 9/21, and all signs indicate his eventual return to expected form. The Cardinals are 11-10 and as a team is batting .257/.335/.395 in September. The Astros are 10-11 and .227/.292/.359 during the same stretch.

Matchups:

9/24 Lynn (16-7) v Abad (0-5)

9/25 Garcia (5-7) v Harrell (10-10)

9/26 Carpenter (0-0) v Norris (5-13)

 

Milwaukee Brewers (2.5 GB the Cardinals)

After the last of their three-game set in Washington is played today, the Brewers visit the NL Central-clinching Cincinnati Reds, who are looking to secure their best record in the division since 1999’s 96-win season; they may have some trouble with the Brewers in town. They are 16-5 in September (the best record in the NL Wild Card race) and while it seems unlikely that they can win this series against the Reds, anytime is a good time for a collapse, even when the highest stake in the division is already decided. As Mike Fiers’ ERA is regressing to the norm after a great start this season (1.77 in 11 games May through July, 5.44 in 10 games August through September), Mike Leake may be the weaker link in the opening matchup. Since making his way back into the rotation, Shaun Marcum is a disappointing 0-1 in six starts with a 5.16 ERA, which doesn’t set very well when you’re facing the NL Cy Young candidate most people are talking about in Johnny Cueto, except for the fact that Cueto’s season 2.84 ERA has been stained a little by a 1-3 record and 5.91 ERA in four starts through September. Perhaps Cueto’s just making room for Bronson Arroyo, who is improving in September, and will face newcomer Wily Peralta, who has showed signs of steady improvement in his four starts since being called up in early September.

Matchups:

9/25 Fiers (9-8) v Leake (8-9)

9/26 Marcum (5-4) v Cueto (18-9)

9/27 Peralta (2-1) v Arroyo (12-8)

Los Angeles Dodgers (3 GB the Cardinals)

It doesn’t seem as if the Dodgers are going to be able to do much to get beyond their current standings in the NL Wild Card. They are 9-11 in September (5-5 in their last ten games) and have been outscored by their opponents by 15 runs during those 20 games. Not only that, they are facing the Padres, who are playing more like the Reds right now, and are one of the most surprising WC spoilers in the current race. Josh Beckett has only earned a single win in five starts with the Dodgers, and Aaron Harang has only one win in his last five starts. Chris Capuano has been picking up the slack in September that he created in August, but against Casey Kelly, one of the game-changers in the Padres’ recent performance, he’s got his work cut out for him. The Dodgers have the opportunity to bounce back from any losses they incur at the Padres’ hands before the season ends, but by then a miracle may be the only thing they need to break out of their current WC standing.

Matchups:

9/25 Beckett (6-13) v Volquez (10-11)

9/26 Harang (9-10) v Richard (14-12)

9/27 Capuano (11-11) v Kelly (2-2)

Otherwise known as "The Baseball Enthusiast," Stevo-sama is a scorekeeping addict who scores every game he watches and/or attends, and typically posts these scoresheets on his blog with a game story of one sort or another. Stevo is a self-proclaimed proponent of the Scorekeeping Revolution, community member of the Eephus League, and proud member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.