Scouting Notebook featuring Byron Buxton

(William DeShazer/Naples Daily News)

By Nathaniel Stoltz | @stoltz_baseball

In the September issue of Big Leagues Monthly | Magazine, I wrote up a “scouting notebook” of sorts with my thoughts about players I had seen in person in the past month. I’ve had the opportunity to see over a dozen games involving several highly-touted prospects, encapsulating the Carolina League, the South Atlantic League, and the Appalachian League. Here are my thoughts on some of the most notable names I saw—I have more to share beyond this, but that can wait until next month!

Byron Buxton, OF, Twins (Rookie-Advanced Elizabethton)

Buxton, the second overall pick in the 2012 draft, clearly boasts all sorts of tools. He’s got wiry strength, power projection, and plenty of athleticism. However, he’s just 18 and has a lot standing between himself and the majors; at times, he looked like the rawest player on the field in the Appalachian League, taking fastballs down the middle, waving at curves in the dirt ten inches off the plate, and misplaying balls in the outfield. But for every head-scratching play he makes, he’ll wow you with something you don’t expect an 18-year-old to be able to do, like pull his hands inside a fastball on the inside corner and rip it to left field, or lay down a perfect drag bunt. He clearly has first-division upside if he can refine his game, but at this stage, any number of developmental paths are possible. Just because his issues are theoretically fixable doesn’t necessarily mean they will be fixed, after all. As with former Twins first-round outfielder Aaron Hicks, it could be years before we know quite how well Buxton’s tools will translate.



Alen Hanson, SS, Pirates (Low-A West Virginia)

How does a player listed at 152 pounds rip 62 extra-base hits in a season? By using Alen Hanson’s swing, which is a magnificent combination of bat speed, shortness, and leverage. It’s truly a thing of beauty. Hanson has a feel for hitting and hard contact, and he could be an annual 20-homer guy as he fills out somewhat. He should retain good speed as well. His arm is a bit light for the shortstop position, and his actions aren’t great, which has led to a high error total this season; ultimately, I’d prefer him at second base long-term. Still, he’ll have plenty of bat for that position and could evolve into an All-Star.

 

Alex Meyer, RHP, Nationals (High-A Potomac)

There’s a lot to like about Meyer, but I’ll get the most important point out of the way: There’s no risk here of a Dellin Betances/Andrew Brackman/John Hellweg situation where a super-tall pitcher can’t find a consistent release point, leading to bouts of extreme wildness. In fact, the most striking thing about Meyer was how easy his delivery was and how well he spotted his 91-96 mph fastball to both sides of the plate—there’s a reason he only walked six batters across his first five Carolina League starts. Meyer relies heavily on the fastball, but his low-80s slider is also a quality weapon. His 87-88 mph changeup is serviceable enough that he can definitely stay in the rotation. The development of his offspeed pitches will decide whether Meyer reaches his #2 starter ceiling or whether he slips to more of a mid-rotation level, but he’s already got plenty working for him just a year into his pro career and looks like a smart use of the 23rd overall pick in 2011.

 

Erik Johnson, RHP, White Sox (High-A Winston-Salem)

When Chicago took Johnson in the second round last year, the hope was that he would turn into a dependable innings-eating fourth starter. The good news is that, like Meyer, he’s very much on track to fulfill those expectations—witness his High-A stat line, a 48/10 K/BB in 49 1/3 innings, a 2.74 ERA, and no homers allowed despite playing his home games in a ballpark that’s 315 feet down the left field line and 322 to right.

The bad news is that while those statistics might paint the picture of a breakout, it’s Johnson’s floor that’s been raised during the season, not his ceiling, which remains that of a fourth starter. Johnson pretty much is what he is—at 6’3” and 250 pounds, he’s physically maxed out, and he already has a complete three-pitch arsenal. His 90-92 mph fastball is probably his worst pitch and he uses it less than most A-ball pitchers, instead leaning heavily on his plus 83-87 mph slider. His third pitch is a big 74-76 mph curveball that rates as solid-average. Between the slider and the curve, Johnson throws a dangerously high amount of breaking pitches and one has to wonder if his elbow will be able to withstand that, a la Brett Anderson. Beyond that concern, though, Johnson looks to be on track to be a solid fourth starter—he doesn’t have much room to improve from here, but he already has an MLB-caliber mix of pitches.

 

Scott Snodgress, LHP, White Sox (High-A Winston-Salem)

I’ve seen Snodgress twice, and I’m not quite sure what to make of him. Like Johnson, he was a high 2011 draftee (5th round) who’s pitched very well in Winston-Salem in his first full year (44/15 K/BB, 1.50 ERA in eight starts). Unlike Johnson, Snodgress is a stringy pitcher with some projection left, at 6’6” and somewhere around 205 pounds, and also unlike Johnson, his fastball is easily his best pitch at this point.

His heater ranges from 89-93 mph with some life, which is excellent velocity for a High-A lefty starter and makes his fastball a borderline plus offering. Snodgress’ second pitch is an inconsistent 73-79 mph curveball that often lacks bite, occasionally flashing average but usually coming in too soft and short. His low-80s changeup is probably more advanced than the curve, but it’s below-average as well and he doesn’t trust it much. Snodgress’ mechanics are also a concern, as he often rushes his delivery and fails to repeat his landing spot and arm slot—to this point, he’s managed to throw strikes anyway, but when he misses, he tends to miss badly. He does have a fantastic pickoff move and controls the running game well.

Overall, Snodgress is a confusing prospect. It’s impossible not to like a projectable lefty who already averages 91 mph and throws a good number of strikes, but Snodgress’ other skills are so far behind that he may not end up an effective starter at the MLB level. If his offspeed stuff and command progress, he could be a fourth or even a third starter; if not, he could be a poor man’s version of Matt Thornton out of the bullpen, coming in to unleash his fastball at higher velocities in short bursts while largely eschewing his offspeed offerings.

 

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Marlins (Low-A Greensboro)

Picked seven selections after Buxton, Heaney is far less exciting. He’s a polished college lefthander who works with an easy delivery and a solid three-pitch mix, highlighted by a plus changeup. His fastball is 88-92 mph with good run and sink, and his slider is above-average. That’s a heck of a mix for a 21-year-old, but as with Johnson, it’s tough to see a ton of room for improvement in Heaney’s game. He’s not an overpowering pitcher as it is, and it’s telling that he’s allowed multiple runs in each of his four starts in the South Atlantic League. It’s easy to see Heaney settling in as a solid #4 starter, and it’s not hard to envision him pitching in Triple-A a year from now, a la Braves 2011 first-rounder Sean Gilmartin, but he looks like more of a safe pick than a guy who can really change Miami’s fortunes in the long run. Then again, given the weak draft class, getting a likely #4 starter at #9 probably wasn’t a total waste of the pick.

 

Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers (Low-A Hickory)

It’s tough to wrap one’s head around the fact that Odor is younger than Buxton, yet he put in a full season of A-ball in 2012 and acquitted himself solidly. Clearly, Odor is well ahead of the curve for his age in most facets of the game, showing good contact skills, some gap power, and solid defense at second base. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll explode once his age catches up to that of his peers. Odor isn’t especially projectable, and there’s nothing about his game that’s stunning; he lacks the “wow” factor of somebody like Hanson. Then again, some of that might just be his tiring through the grind of his first full season—perhaps if I saw him in the first half, where he hit .293/.357/.482 to the second half’s .232/.277/.336, I would have been more impressed. Odor comes away as a good prospect either way, but the player I saw looked like a future #7/#8 hitter with solid defense, not a potential All-Star table-setter.

 

Jorge Alfaro, 1B/C, Rangers (Low-A Hickory)

Alfaro is another super-young, highly-touted Hickory hitter who didn’t impress me as much as one might expect. His major flaw is a total lack of feel for the strike zone, which is evident in his career 186/25 K/BB ratio. Alfaro takes wild, Vlad Guerrero-esque full-body hacks at nearly everything pitchers throw him, even in hitter’s counts—in one at-bat, he swung wildly at three straight offspeed pitches in the dirt. He clearly packs a punch on the rare occasions he connects, but his approach is so far from acceptable that it’ll take a lot of work for him to get to Miguel Olivo’s level. Defensively, he’s fine at first base, but it’s telling that he’s mostly been playing there or DH in deference to Kellin Deglan this year and has only caught 15 percent of basestealers in the 29 games caught he’s managed to get in. In my opinion, Alfaro is one of the more overrated prospects in the game.

 

Alex Wood, LHP, Braves (Low-A Rome)

Wood was picked 76 selections after Heaney, but I’m not sure I like Heaney better. Wood was easily the more effective of the two southpaws against SAL competition down the stretch this year, though he’s five months older. He has a very deceptive, complicated motion with a fairly low arm slot that causes batters to pick up his pitches late, making everything play up as long as he’s repeating the motion. His fastball generally comes in around 88-92 with good life, his low-80s changeup occasionally has electric movement, and his slider is inconsistent but is above-average at the upper end of its velocity range. It’s easy to get freaked out by all the moving parts in Wood’s delivery, but they didn’t seem to have any negative effects on his command or his stuff. His upside is probably something along the lines of a groundball-oriented version of Ted Lilly.

 

Max Kepler, OF, Twins (Rookie-Advanced Elizabethton)

Kepler lacks the loud tools of his teammate Buxton, but he’s got plenty to boast as well, as there are few weaknesses in his game. Kepler’s swing has some leverage and could allow him to be a 20-HR player, he has a good feel for the strike zone, and his speed and defense will work just fine in right field. For a solid-across-the-board player like this, sometimes the line between solid starter and fourth outfielder is razor-thin (see the debates about Robbie Grossman’s potential, for one), but given his European background and young age, Kepler’s polish at this point is quite surprising and a big point in his favor. While I wouldn’t predict it, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if he has a better career than Buxton.

 

Joe Van Meter, RHP, Rangers (High-A Myrtle Beach)

This year, Van Meter had a 2.06 ERA in the Carolina League, with a 74/22 K/BB in 74 1/3 innings. Does that make him a prospect? One certainly can’t completely ignore a performance of that quality, though Van Meter isn’t exactly the most exciting arm to watch. His best pitch is a solid-average curveball with good depth at 76-79 mph. He’ll push his fastball up to 93 mph at times, but he’ll also fall down as far as 86 with the pitch—he’s obviously far more interesting at 91-93 than 86-88. Pushing his velocity more consistently into the 90s could be what makes or breaks Van Meter’s career. His changeup is a below-average low-80s pitch that lacks much movement. At 24, he needs to work on his velocity and changeup quickly. For now, he profiles as a Triple-A mainstay or MLB swingman/fringe fifth starter/middle reliever—frankly, that’s not a bad outcome for a guy who was picked in the 21st round in 2010.

 

Hudson Boyd, RHP, Twins (Rookie-Advanced Elizabethton)

Boyd finished third in the Appalachian League with a 2.95 ERA at age 19, and he carries the cache of being the 55th overall pick in 2011, but he doesn’t really pass the eye test. Boyd works at 86-91 mph with his fastball, which is his only pitch that’s really usable at this point. It does feature good run and sink at times, but it’s merely an average pitch. Boyd threw a few 82-84 mph changeups—the pitch didn’t have anywhere near enough velocity separation from his fastball, to the point where it was difficult to distinguish the two offerings. The pitch did show some sink and fade, though. Boyd only threw one breaking pitch in the start I saw, a 77-mph curveball, so he clearly isn’t incorporating breaking stuff to much of a degree yet.

Even though he’s just 19, Boyd is physically maxed out—he looks more like actor Jack Black than a professional athlete. However, his delivery recalls Dylan Bundy’s with its cleanness and mechanical efficiency, which is a point in his favor. I could see Boyd as a ground-balling middle reliever, but when Scott Munter’s career looks like an average outcome, that’s not good. Boyd still has time to move past that projection, but his offspeed stuff needs a ton of work before he’s going to keep batters off balance and rack up reasonable strikeout totals at full-season levels.

 

Nick Sawyer, RHP, Rays (Low-A Bowling Green)

Sawyer was the Rays’ final pick in the 2012 draft, but he’s quickly making a name for himself. His stat line at Rookie-Advanced Princeton: 24 1/3 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 10 BB, 50 K.

Sometimes, PlayStation stat lines by low-minors relievers are the result of a trick pitch or delivery, but that’s not the case with Sawyer, a 5’11” powder keg of a pitcher who absolutely explodes to the plate, unleashing effortless mid-90s heat. His second pitch is an 82-85 mph slider that is devastating played off his fastball. Sawyer is definitely for real and has late-game relief upside. He should move quickly through the Rays’ system, even though the organization is notorious for its slow development timetables.

You can follow Nathaniel Stoltz on Twitter @stoltz_baseball. Along with his regular contributions to Big Leagues Monthly | Magazine, he also writes for Beyond The Boxscore and hosts the20-80 Report podcast.