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| (AP Photo) |
By
Stevo-sama | @yoshiki89
--Standings as of end of play 9/30/12--
Atlanta Braves
(clinched Wild Card 1)
Entering
their final series of the regular season, math is now on the side of the Braves
as they head for Pittsburgh with sole possession of the first Wild Card slot in
the National League. This will be a no-pressure series for the Braves; no
offense against the Pirates intended. With their 20th record-setting
consecutive losing season officially in the books, the Pirates have nothing
left to play for but their pride. The Braves, however, have turned their
playoff push into reality this season, where last season they fell short by one
game. What’s ultimately ironic about this is that while they have certainly
earned the Wild Card slot they now proudly possess, if the Cardinals continue
their push they will be in the same boat they were in last year…facing the very
same upstart team that previously upset their chances for an NLDS appearance,
albeit this time, facing them quite literally in a one-game playoff.
Matchups:
10/1 Maholm
(13-10) v Locke (0-3)
10/2 Hanson
(13-9) v Correia (11-11)
10/3 Hudson
(16-7) v Burnett (16-9)St Louis Cardinals (Magic number to clinch a Wild Card spot is at two)
Speaking of
the pesky Cardinals, the same team that by chance had exploited what was the
error in the legacy Wild Card system (or so it has been said by some) is doing
it again. Even with the new Wild Card system, the post-seasonally ubiquitous Redbirds
are definitively in the mix, despite the argument that the new system is
designed to maximize the competition for that eventual Wild Card slot. What
invalidates these arguments is the way the Cardinals are playing baseball…not
only last year, but this year as well…so it certainly can’t be said that the
Cardinals are where they are by now due to an inconsistency in the playoff
system.
This final series of the season finds the division champion Cincinnati
Reds in town, and at this point one shouldn’t cross this off as anything but a
‘must win series’ for the Cardinals. Both teams are playing away from their
Pythagorean expectation, but in opposite directions; the Reds are seven wins better,
while the Cardinals are five wins worse. If a collapse is going to come along
for the Cardinals, this is when it’s going to happen. Both Jaime Garcia and
Chris Carpenter are (pun wholly intended) wild card starts against Arroyo and
Latos respectively; with Homer Bailey’s first start after his surprise
no-hitter this past weekend, the expectation of underperformance is looming. St
Louis has yet to announce their start against Bailey, it will most likely be
Adam Wainwright or Kyle Lohse, depending on how the first two games end up.
Wainwright’s ERA against the Reds in five starts this season is 5.29.
Matchups:10/1 Arroyo (12-9) v Garcia (6-7)
10/2 Latos
(13-4) v Carpenter (0-1)
10/3 Bailey
(13-10) v TBD
The pressure
on the Cardinals right now is two-fold, they must best the Reds in order to
keep their number two Wild Card spot, and the raging Dodgers (five-game winning
streak considered) have to fail against the division champion San Francisco
Giants. This situation is where one finds it hard to reasonably discount the importance
of the Wild Card slot…St Louis and Los Angeles may not have been able to take
their respective divisions in stride, but they are making every valid case for
why the Wild Card matters, and how teams fight for this slot, not just fall
into it. The Giants are 45-33 (.577) on the road, and the Dodgers are 43-35
(.551) at home; while these splits nearly cancel each other out, the Dodgers
are 6-9 against the Giants this season. The Dodgers have only lost three of
their last 10 games…and so have the Giants.
Matchups:10/1 Cain (16-5) v Harang (10-10)
10/2 Zito
(14-8) v Capuano (12-11)
10/3
Vogelsong (14-9) v Kershaw (13-9)
Blow their
competition away they did not, and the assessment of a series against the
Astros not being a sure thing turned out to be an accurate one…the Astros
trolled the Brewers into their second consecutive (and significant) series loss
and Milwaukee has been officially eliminated from the Wild Card race.
Otherwise
known as "The
Baseball Enthusiast," Stevo-sama is a scorekeeping addict who scores
every game he watches and/or attends, and typically posts these scoresheets on
his blog with a game story of one sort or another. Stevo is a self-proclaimed
proponent of the Scorekeeping Revolution, community member of the Eephus
League, and proud member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.
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